Record of Nifty Diary-(Aug2017)

NIFTY END OF ELLIOT WAVES ARE REGULARLY UPDATED ON SEPERATE BLOG PAGE...,,

NIFTY ELLIOT WAVE DAIRY...LATEST UPDATE

 Today's update may be read by clicking above link.

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Old pages of Nifty ELLIOT Waves diary's are maintained in reverse cronogical order of Date

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Nifty Diary  ~  30 th August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 31st Aug-2017 at 01:45 Hours IST.

Hourly chart, 

 completion of 8 wave cycle, Next 8 wave cycle initiated. Count may require alteration, in line with clarity on DAILY chart. 

Daily chart,

Pending American-Japan-Korean response, to N.Korean missile launch, it was expected that equity markets will continue to trade with nervousness. Wave c(ii) was expected to be slow, but volatile. However, as it can be seen on hourly chart it was straight and crossed 61.8% Fibo level. On daily chart because of omentum it coldbreach the downward lending main trend line. in intraday basis. Intrestingly, Nifty  closed just at this trendline crossing point, indicating down trend is still not over.
Perception plays important role, therefore attempting to enlisting
today's events, which sucked the (expected) volatility out of  wave c(ii) are,
(1)
 CATEGORY-1 storm HARVEY lead record breaking rain in Texas,
will cause outage in larget Oil refinary of USA.It is perceived to have positive impact on performance of other refinaries iof world, including RELIANCE in INDIA.

(2)
 INDIAN Finance Ministr's made a statement that Group of Minister will meet to discuss DIS- INVESTMENT of AIR INDIA, might had triggered some short covering (precautionary), as Air India sell off had potensial to bring 50,000 Crore INR to Government. in next session , AUGUST series derivative contracts will expire. So, this hsd also its effect on momentum.

 INDIA VIX  

Remained in RED ZONE, and finally closed in RED.

NSE Derivative Turnover  

Generally, during expiry week derivative volume increases, but VOLUME in Future and Option segment was remained flat.  This is sign of nervousness to roll over positions.

 Price Volume chart

 Nifty made  Higher HIGH  - Higher Low with Mix Volume 

(in cash segment turnover reduced, but Traded quantity increased)

NSE ADVANCE DECLINE 

 was above one,  and at closing it was (3:1)

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷

Way ahead:-

As anticipated, Nifty opened in gap up but surprised most analyst by breaking 61.8% level of 9,871. This created short mementum to breach downward slending trendline in intraday trade. 

Nifty closed at crossing of trend line, and kept downward trend intact. on daily chart triangle is also visible.

In Next session, 

expecting Nifty to break triangle on either side. 
Being expiry session, it is difficult to see how long it will take to break triangle.So watching triangle levels  will be key to trade in next session.

Simultaneously, keeping eye on news channel is also need of time, as geo political tension is still on.

All the Best.

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Nifty Diary  ~  29 th August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 29-Aug-2017 at 03:30 Hours IST.

On hourly chart 8 wave cycle completed. Count may require alteration.

On daily chart,

Wave C (i) completed at 9,783,  very fast. N.Korean Missile launch has created geo political tension in asia pacific region. Pending American-Japan-Korean response, equity markets may continue to trade with nervousness.

YESTERDAY, VIX Index made double  bottom at 12.43. Today VIX continued to rise snd finally closed in GREEN.

VOLUME in Future and Option segment increased.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  Lower HIGH  - Lower Low 

with mix  volume (in cash segment turnover reduced, but Traded quantity increased)

NSE ADVANCE DECLINE Ratio was below one,  and at closing it was (10:25)

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷

Way ahead:-

As anticipated, Nifty opened in gap down and broke the support of 9,865 and 9,840.  After minor bounce from 9,822 to 9,847 Nifty broke 9,800 level, snd closed below 9800.【Power of  C Wave on daily chart】



 In Next session, expecting Nifty to retest 9840, 9853 & may be 9871 (FIBO LEVELS of recent fall to 9783) in time confusing manner. Being 2nd session of expiry week, movement ay show volatility in range bound.

Fresh short position above 9,840 level, will have good risk reward level. Fresh buying,  and carry forward of long position, will carry extra risk of  probable unforseen results in on going geo political event. American President has already issued statement that, "All otion are on the tsble"

All the Best.

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Nifty Diary  ~  28 August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 29-Aug-2017 at 02:45 Hours IST.

On hourly chart,  first wave seems to be completed.  Count may require alteration,   in line with alteration in wave count on Daily wave chart.

On daily chart,
Wave count required to be altered, as now it is clear that wave B, with three inner wave has completed  at 9,925 by touching the downward slending trendline. Wave C has initiate with taget of 9,497 & 9,325.

VIX Index flip floped in RED snd Green zone, finally closed in GREEN. Vix made double bottom at 12.43. In Derivative, TODAY VOLUME in Future segment rised, but Option volume drasticslly reduced.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  Higher HIGH  - Higher Low 
with FLAT  volume.

NSE ADVANCE DECLINE Ratio was above one,  and at closing it was (2:1)

Way ahead:-

NIFTY opened in gap up to breach 9,865, and with momentum, surpassed next resistance level of 9,915. After hitting downward slending trendline on Daily chart, Nifty failed to maintain 9,915 level. On hourly chart, upward suport channel was violated.

On hourly chart, Nifty decisivly trade below,  support chanel,hence it is to test 9,840 support ~ & with force of C Wave on daily chart, 9,865 and 9,840 support is to be broken.  Before testing next  at 9,740 &  9,685 minor bounce from 9815 to 9,840 is expected, bounce will have upper limit t 9,865 levels. Next session, short sellers is to have good risk reward ratio ~ as market is slightly over bought (all sectoral indices, closed in Green and Advance Decline Ratio is (2:1 ). VIX has given sell signal


All the Best

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Nifty  Diary~  24 August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 28-Aug-2017 at 09:45 Hours IST.

Now, as per logical sequence, 8 wave cycle on hourly chart initiated ~ first wave seems to be completed.

Exact nature of pattern becomes clearly visible only on its completion

 In Yesterday and today's session , VIX Index  cooled down with rising volume in Derivative segment.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  Higher HIGH  - Higher Low 
with mix  volume, , but yesterday and today derivative segment volume has incresed.  

Volatility Index cooled down further and stayed in RED. Advance Decline Ratio was above one,  and at closing it was slightly above 1

Way ahead:-

Now,9,865 is immediate resistant, Next resistance level are 9,915& 9,948. 

On hourly chart, Nifty violated upwsrd support chanel,hence it is likely to test 9,840 support ~ if failed, 9,740 &  9,685 are next support levels.

All the Best.

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Nifty Diary 23-August2017 (Closing)

Blog Updated on 24-Aug-2017 at 08:35 Hours IST.

It appears that fifth and final downward impulsive wave of
Wave c, was terminated in yesterday's intraday triangular on hourly chart.

Now, as per logical sequence new 8 wave cycle on hourly chart initiated with flat volume in cash market.

Exact nature of pattern becomes clearly visible only on its completion. As of now 

On Daily chart, It appears that impulsive Wave c targeting 9,497 and 9,325 level is terminated at 9,756 with yesterday's triangular formation on intraday hourly chart. However one should be ready for alteration ~ as this bounce might be part of flat correction.
But right now, it appears that it will consume sometime before reaching to its downward target of 9,497 and 9,325. In Yesterday and today's session , VIX Index has cooled down with rising volume in Derivative segment.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  Higher HIGH  - Higher Low 
with mix  volume, with mix volume. Cash segment volume has remained flat in last three sessiin, but yesterday and today derivative segment volume has incresed.  

Volatility Index cooled down further and stayed in RED. Advance Decline Ratio was above one,  and at closing it was (2:1)

Way ahead:-

Yesterday's intraday triangle has broken on upward side, which helped to break downward slending trendline and first resistance at 9,840.

Now,9,865 is immediate resistant, Next resistance level are 9,915& 9,948. On downside, 9,740 &  9,685 are support. First two hour of trade data will make it clear that how long it will take to reach 9,497.

All the Best.

_________-----________

Nifty  ~  22 August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 23-Aug-2017 at 03:20 Hours IST.

Forth corrective leg of downward impulsive Wave c, was under progress.

On Daily chart, Downward impulsive Wave c targeting 9,497 and 9,325 level under progress. Third downward leg of wave c was completed at 9,740  and 4th corrective leg was under progress.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  lower HIGH  - Higher Low 
with mix  volume. 【intraday triangular formation】probably because, yesterday Dark cloud cover was not supported by volume.

Volatility Index cooled down and stayed in RED. Advance Decline Ratio was below one,  and remained below one

Way ahead:-

Expecting to break intraday triangle on either side. 9840, 9865 are resistant and 9740, 9685 are support. Wave c target 9497 is intact.

All the Best.

;----------

Nifty  ~  21 August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 21-Aug-2017 at 22:00 Hours IST.

As mentioned earlier, Because of spillover effect of pending 9,965 today corrective Wave b continued by gap up opening at 9,865 and soon completed    at 9,884.

Downward impulsive Wave c, initiated from 9,884 was so powerful that it broke 9,750 in its third leg only.

On Daily chart, Downward impulsive Wave c targeting 9,497 and 9,325 level under progress. Today's gap up opening was part of corrective bounce (ii) which completed at 9,984. Third downward leg of wave c was so powerful that it broke 9,784 support & 9,750. It will be premature to judge whether this leg is completed at 9,740 or will extend further, because of fact that in today's trade volume was missing.

In Friday's (18 Aug) EoD post, it was expressed that "Now every bounce, creation of short positions will have favorable risk reward ratio"

This was materialised today.

On Price Volume chart, Nifty made  Higher HIGH  - Lower Low 
without  volume. 【Volumeless Dark cloud cover】This confirms corrective bounce inside impulsive wave c was completed, but does not confirm third leg of impulse is completed at 9,740.

Volatility Index remained in RED,   At the end of day VIX closed in GREEN.
This indicates third leg of impulsive wave c may extend further.

Advance Decline Ratio was above one,  but gradually reduced. At the end of session it was below one. This confirms third leg of impulse

Way ahead:-

As expected every bounce, creation of fresh short position is pushing NIFTY towards its  target 【 wave c 】which are placed at 9,497 & 9,325.

Expecting creation of short positions with every bounce till 9,497 and 9,325 as it will have favorable risk reward ratio.

All the Best.

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Nifty  ~  18 August 2017 (Closing)  :-

Blog Updated on 18-Aug-2017 at 18:35 Hours IST.

Are Indian PHARMA STOCKS BOTTOMED OUT??

Key Question most investors in Indian equity market asking is

Are Indian PHARMA STOCKS bottommed OUT??


And simple Answer is :- Not Yet.

INDIAN PHARMA STOCKS ARE NOT BOTTOMED OUT YET.

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Rationale :-

Yearly ELLIOT WAVE CHART of CNX PHARMA INDEX which is maintained by India's leading stock exchange -National Stock Exchange (NSE)
shows that, Wave c is under progress...with a target at 6,563.

As per Elliot Wave Theory, this ongoing c wave may extend upto 4,960 level, but cannot go below 4,960.

Simultaneous to above technical chart, fundamental analysis of Indian PHARMA stocks reveals following facts...

(1)
Earning Cycle of Indian Pharma companies is yet to bottom out.
Barring few exception, most pharma companies have reported decline in top line and bottom line, alongwith weak guidance for coming quarter.

(2)
Indian Pharma companies with exposure to European market have started to felt aftermath of Brexit, and will require to realien their operation.

(3)
In USA, current regime under Mr. Trump has clear focus on AMERICA FIRST.  It is becoming clear that this administration won't mind weak dollar, if it helps in creating new jobs.
USD Dollar Index has broken key level of 95 on downside, and may continue to slide further. This development in currancy market is a challange to export oriented earning of INDIAN PHARMA companies.

(4)
At domestic front, Govt. has started to focus on walfare of weaker section of society. For making health products and health services affordable, Government has slowly but systamatically started putting pricing cap on drugs, medical equipment snd healthcare services.

(5)
Medicines are specislised items, and as per current marketing and manufacturing system, GST might not be helpful in margin improvement of INDIAN Pharma sector.

On the flip side complications of GST implementation - like old inventory, regulatory filing etc. might prove dampner, atleast for one or two quarters.

Like AUTO manufacturer companies, PHARMA Manufacturing companies might have to absorb initial shock of GST imementation, so as to protect dealer's margin.

(6)
These all together are likely to put pressure on earning and margins of Indian Pharma companies, atleast for one or two of quarter.
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Ending Note:-
While announcing latest quarter result, SUN PHARMA -leading Indian Pharma  company has released weak margin guidance.  Being an investor caring company, Sun Pharma completed share buy back programe at 800+Inr per share. Since then, share prices are decling with periodic technical bpunces. Current Market Price of share is 460 INR plus, which may go sub 400 level.

More or less similar things are happening at other INDIAN PHARMA companies.

Therefore,
Some more pain left for investors who are already invested into equity of INDIAN Pharma companies. Those, who want to tame fresh exposure should wait fpr some time.


All the Best.

Disclaimer:-

(1) CNXPHARMA INDEX data is as received from googlefinanace.

(2) Data is processed to generate hourly EWT wave.

(3)All due care is taken while processing the data. However some minor technical glitch may not be ruled out.

(4) This is posted for Academic purpose only. Any trading decision must be taken in consultation with financial consultant.

TATA MOTORS heading towards 691

Yearly ELLIOT WAVE CHART of TATA MOTORS  (NSE High Low)

Wave 5(ii) overstretched beyond 
 61.8% FIBO level of 392.8.
Now next
78.2% Fibo level is placed at 338.3.

Once, Wave 5(ii) will be completed,
fast impulsive wave 5(iii) will start with a target of 691.

Please do remember that this is yearly Chart and more useful for taking entry -exit for long term horizon.

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FOR MORE CLARITY
Monthly ELLIOT WAVE CHART of TATA MOTORS  (NSE High Low) Wave 4 & 5(i) completed on Yearly Chart & Wave 5(ii) under progress....

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For Further clarity,
Weekly ELLIOT WAVE CHART of TATA MOTORS  (NSE High Low)  Wave 5 on Yearly Chart as in progress....

ALL THE BEST.




Disclaimer :-
1.
Writer is independent trader in stock markets and may have positions in TATAMOTORS EQUITY and Derivative instruments including NIFTY & OTHER STOCKS

2
Blog is to share trader's perception & views.

3
Charts are drawn on google data using google sheet and all efforts are done to maintain calculation accuracy. 
4
Before taking action consultation with qualified financial consultant is neccessary.

TATAMOTORS WEEKLY CLOSING ELLIOT WAVE CHART

In continuation to earlier blog

Tata-Motors-heading towards 691

Weekly closing values of TATA MOTORS share on NSE are plotted.

Waves are numbered as per ELLIOT WAVE THEORY.

Because of space constraint, minutte wave 1 to 5 of wave 3(iii) are not numbered, but it can be easily seen in the chart.


This chart confirms, wave 5(ii) will end soon, if not ended at 375. Next will be impsive upmove 5(iii) price target of 691 on  Daily High/Low chart, as naratted in earlier blog which can be
which can be read by clicking...

CLICK HERE TO READ BLOG TATA MOTORS HEADING TOWARDS 691

ALL THE BEST.




Disclaimer :-
1.
Writer is independent trader in stock markets and may have positions in TATAMOTORS EQUITY and Derivative instruments including NIFTY & OTHER STOCKS

2
Blog is to share trader's perception & views.

3
Charts are drawn on google data using google sheet and all efforts are done to maintain calculation accuracy. 
4

Before taking action consultation with qualified financial consultant is neccessary.

Reliance- biggest gainer of Market capitalisation.

In current week ended on 6th August 2017, m-cap of RIL surged Rs 9,186.15 crore INR to Rs 5,27,594.19 crore INR.

This made Reliance, as the biggest gainer among the top-10 most valued Indian firms which includes, TCS, HDFC Bank, SBI, HUL, Maruti Suzuki India, ONGC (m-cap gainers) and ITC, HDFC and Infosys (m-cap lossers).

For getting insight, Read this blog (simply Click the text) which was posted earlier.

Reliance share prices are heading towards 2,025


(1) Price Volume chart :-

(2) Weekly High Low chart :-

(3) Nifty Weekly High Low Chart :-

(4) Reliance Comparative Chart :-  

Hope this update will be useful in wealth creation. 

All The Best

Disclaimers:-
Being an update to earlier blogpost Desclaimer made in that post are still applicable. For ready reference reproducing here.

"Writer is independent trader in stock markets and may have positions in RELIANCE EQUITY and Derivative instruments including NIFTY & Reliance. Blog is to share trader's perception & views. Charts are drawn on google data using google sheet and all efforts are done to maintain calculation accuracy. However, before taking action consultation with qualified financial consultant is advised."