NIFTY END OF ELLIOT WAVES ARE REGULARLY UPDATED ON SEPERATE BLOG PAGE...,,
Today's update may be read by clicking above link.
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Old pages of Nifty ELLIOT Waves diary's are maintained in reverse cronogical order of Date
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Nifty Diary ~ 30 th August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 31st Aug-2017 at 01:45 Hours IST.
Hourly chart,
completion of 8 wave cycle, Next 8 wave cycle initiated. Count may require alteration, in line with clarity on DAILY chart.
Daily chart,
Pending American-Japan-Korean response, to N.Korean missile launch, it was expected that equity markets will continue to trade with nervousness. Wave c(ii) was expected to be slow, but volatile. However, as it can be seen on hourly chart it was straight and crossed 61.8% Fibo level. On daily chart because of omentum it coldbreach the downward lending main trend line. in intraday basis. Intrestingly, Nifty closed just at this trendline crossing point, indicating down trend is still not over.Perception plays important role, therefore attempting to enlisting
today's events, which sucked the (expected) volatility out of wave c(ii) are,
(1)
CATEGORY-1 storm HARVEY lead record breaking rain in Texas,
will cause outage in larget Oil refinary of USA.It is perceived to have positive impact on performance of other refinaries iof world, including RELIANCE in INDIA.
(2)
INDIAN Finance Ministr's made a statement that Group of Minister will meet to discuss DIS- INVESTMENT of AIR INDIA, might had triggered some short covering (precautionary), as Air India sell off had potensial to bring 50,000 Crore INR to Government. in next session , AUGUST series derivative contracts will expire. So, this hsd also its effect on momentum.
INDIA VIX
Remained in RED ZONE, and finally closed in RED.
NSE Derivative Turnover
Generally, during expiry week derivative volume increases, but VOLUME in Future and Option segment was remained flat. This is sign of nervousness to roll over positions.
Price Volume chart
Nifty made Higher HIGH - Higher Low with Mix Volume
(in cash segment turnover reduced, but Traded quantity increased)
NSE ADVANCE DECLINE
was above one, and at closing it was (3:1)
÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷
Way ahead:-
As anticipated, Nifty opened in gap up but surprised most analyst by breaking 61.8% level of 9,871. This created short mementum to breach downward slending trendline in intraday trade.
Nifty closed at crossing of trend line, and kept downward trend intact. on daily chart triangle is also visible.
In Next session,
expecting Nifty to break triangle on either side.
Being expiry session, it is difficult to see how long it will take to break triangle.So watching triangle levels will be key to trade in next session.
Simultaneously, keeping eye on news channel is also need of time, as geo political tension is still on.
Nifty closed at crossing of trend line, and kept downward trend intact. on daily chart triangle is also visible.
In Next session,
expecting Nifty to break triangle on either side.
Being expiry session, it is difficult to see how long it will take to break triangle.So watching triangle levels will be key to trade in next session.
Simultaneously, keeping eye on news channel is also need of time, as geo political tension is still on.
All the Best.
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Nifty Diary ~ 29 th August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 29-Aug-2017 at 03:30 Hours IST.
On hourly chart 8 wave cycle completed. Count may require alteration.
On daily chart,
Wave C (i) completed at 9,783, very fast. N.Korean Missile launch has created geo political tension in asia pacific region. Pending American-Japan-Korean response, equity markets may continue to trade with nervousness.
YESTERDAY, VIX Index made double bottom at 12.43. Today VIX continued to rise snd finally closed in GREEN.
VOLUME in Future and Option segment increased.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Lower HIGH - Lower Low
with mix volume (in cash segment turnover reduced, but Traded quantity increased)
NSE ADVANCE DECLINE Ratio was below one, and at closing it was (10:25)
÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷
Way ahead:-
As anticipated, Nifty opened in gap down and broke the support of 9,865 and 9,840. After minor bounce from 9,822 to 9,847 Nifty broke 9,800 level, snd closed below 9800.【Power of C Wave on daily chart】
In Next session, expecting Nifty to retest 9840, 9853 & may be 9871 (FIBO LEVELS of recent fall to 9783) in time confusing manner. Being 2nd session of expiry week, movement ay show volatility in range bound.
Fresh short position above 9,840 level, will have good risk reward level. Fresh buying, and carry forward of long position, will carry extra risk of probable unforseen results in on going geo political event. American President has already issued statement that, "All otion are on the tsble"
In Next session, expecting Nifty to retest 9840, 9853 & may be 9871 (FIBO LEVELS of recent fall to 9783) in time confusing manner. Being 2nd session of expiry week, movement ay show volatility in range bound.
Fresh short position above 9,840 level, will have good risk reward level. Fresh buying, and carry forward of long position, will carry extra risk of probable unforseen results in on going geo political event. American President has already issued statement that, "All otion are on the tsble"
All the Best.
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Nifty Diary ~ 28 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 29-Aug-2017 at 02:45 Hours IST.
On daily chart,
Wave count required to be altered, as now it is clear that wave B, with three inner wave has completed at 9,925 by touching the downward slending trendline. Wave C has initiate with taget of 9,497 & 9,325.
VIX Index flip floped in RED snd Green zone, finally closed in GREEN. Vix made double bottom at 12.43. In Derivative, TODAY VOLUME in Future segment rised, but Option volume drasticslly reduced.
with FLAT volume.
NSE ADVANCE DECLINE Ratio was above one, and at closing it was (2:1)
Way ahead:-
NIFTY opened in gap up to breach 9,865, and with momentum, surpassed next resistance level of 9,915. After hitting downward slending trendline on Daily chart, Nifty failed to maintain 9,915 level. On hourly chart, upward suport channel was violated.
On hourly chart, Nifty decisivly trade below, support chanel,hence it is to test 9,840 support ~ & with force of C Wave on daily chart, 9,865 and 9,840 support is to be broken. Before testing next at 9,740 & 9,685 minor bounce from 9815 to 9,840 is expected, bounce will have upper limit t 9,865 levels. Next session, short sellers is to have good risk reward ratio ~ as market is slightly over bought (all sectoral indices, closed in Green and Advance Decline Ratio is (2:1 ). VIX has given sell signal
All the Best
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Nifty Diary~ 24 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 28-Aug-2017 at 09:45 Hours IST.
Exact nature of pattern becomes clearly visible only on its completion
In Yesterday and today's session , VIX Index cooled down with rising volume in Derivative segment.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher HIGH - Higher Low
with mix volume, , but yesterday and today derivative segment volume has incresed.
Way ahead:-
Now,9,865 is immediate resistant, Next resistance level are 9,915& 9,948.
On hourly chart, Nifty violated upwsrd support chanel,hence it is likely to test 9,840 support ~ if failed, 9,740 & 9,685 are next support levels.
All the Best.
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Nifty Diary 23-August2017 (Closing)
Blog Updated on 24-Aug-2017 at 08:35 Hours IST.
Wave c, was terminated in yesterday's intraday triangular on hourly chart.
Now, as per logical sequence new 8 wave cycle on hourly chart initiated with flat volume in cash market.
Exact nature of pattern becomes clearly visible only on its completion. As of now
On Daily chart, It appears that impulsive Wave c targeting 9,497 and 9,325 level is terminated at 9,756 with yesterday's triangular formation on intraday hourly chart. However one should be ready for alteration ~ as this bounce might be part of flat correction.But right now, it appears that it will consume sometime before reaching to its downward target of 9,497 and 9,325. In Yesterday and today's session , VIX Index has cooled down with rising volume in Derivative segment.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher HIGH - Higher Low
with mix volume, with mix volume. Cash segment volume has remained flat in last three sessiin, but yesterday and today derivative segment volume has incresed.
Way ahead:-
Yesterday's intraday triangle has broken on upward side, which helped to break downward slending trendline and first resistance at 9,840.
Now,9,865 is immediate resistant, Next resistance level are 9,915& 9,948. On downside, 9,740 & 9,685 are support. First two hour of trade data will make it clear that how long it will take to reach 9,497.
Now,9,865 is immediate resistant, Next resistance level are 9,915& 9,948. On downside, 9,740 & 9,685 are support. First two hour of trade data will make it clear that how long it will take to reach 9,497.
All the Best.
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Nifty ~ 22 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 23-Aug-2017 at 03:20 Hours IST.
Forth corrective leg of downward impulsive Wave c, was under progress.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made lower HIGH - Higher Low
with mix volume. 【intraday triangular formation】probably because, yesterday Dark cloud cover was not supported by volume.
Way ahead:-
Expecting to break intraday triangle on either side. 9840, 9865 are resistant and 9740, 9685 are support. Wave c target 9497 is intact.
All the Best.
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Nifty ~ 21 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 21-Aug-2017 at 22:00 Hours IST.
As mentioned earlier, Because of spillover effect of pending 9,965 today corrective Wave b continued by gap up opening at 9,865 and soon completed at 9,884.
Downward impulsive Wave c, initiated from 9,884 was so powerful that it broke 9,750 in its third leg only.
In Friday's (18 Aug) EoD post, it was expressed that "Now every bounce, creation of short positions will have favorable risk reward ratio"
This was materialised today.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher HIGH - Lower Low
without volume. 【Volumeless Dark cloud cover】This confirms corrective bounce inside impulsive wave c was completed, but does not confirm third leg of impulse is completed at 9,740.
This indicates third leg of impulsive wave c may extend further.
Advance Decline Ratio was above one, but gradually reduced. At the end of session it was below one. This confirms third leg of impulse
Way ahead:-
As expected every bounce, creation of fresh short position is pushing NIFTY towards its target 【 wave c 】which are placed at 9,497 & 9,325.
Expecting creation of short positions with every bounce till 9,497 and 9,325 as it will have favorable risk reward ratio.
All the Best.
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Nifty ~ 18 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 18-Aug-2017 at 18:35 Hours IST.
Today's Volume data confirmed, that corrective wave X was completed at 9,948 on hourly chart. Mr. Vishal Sikka's Resignation as CEO of country's leading software company triggered sell off in INFOSYS share.. At one stage, share was trading below 12% price of previous day closing rate. TODAY more than 8 crore shares were traded on NSE alone. Company'market capitalisation was eroded by 27,000 plus crore. This, Price fall in INFY with higher Trading Volume pulled Nifty Down and closed any possibility of alteration of wave count , as wave X on hourly chart and wave b on daily chart terminated at 9,948, without achieving its 61.8% target level of 9,965.
The, spillover effect of pending 9,965 was obvious when Downward impulsive wave a on hourly chart, completed at 9,784 in very fast manner to initiate Wave b from 9,784.
Please notice that, On daily chart, this bounce in second half was not recorded as it could not cross morning high.
Today's volume data confirmed that
on Daily chart, wave b completed at 9,948. Downward impulsive Wave c targeting 9,497 and 9,325 level under progress on Daily chart.Yesterday's VIX signalled that "downward impulse may intiate anytime", --
This was materialised today.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Lower HIGH - Lower Low
with volume.
This confirms impulsive wave c initiated.
This confirms today's downward impulsive wave.
Advance Decline Ratio was below (1:2) but gradually increased, At the end of session it was above one. This confirms impulse and follow up corrective wave.
Way ahead:-
Completion of wave 5 formed, HEAD and sholdet pattern on daily chart with neckline at 9,998. As expected neckline level remained intact.
"Wave b" ended at 9,948 without test ing 9,965 (61.8% FIBO). Fast downward impulsive "wave c" has started with target of 9,497 (=wave a) and 9,325(=1.382 of wave a).
Now with every bounce, creation of fresh short position is expected which will push NIFTY towards its target of wave c which are placed at 9,497 & 9,325.
Now there is no extra risk of alteration in wave count, & 9,948,9,9 65 &9,998 are strong resistance. Therefore, every bounce creation of short positions will have favorable risk reward ratio.
All the Best.
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Nifty ~ 17 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 18-Aug-2017 at 01:10 Hours IST.
Today's Volume data confirmed, corrective up wave X on hourly chart. Looking at Daily chart, it might be premature to judge that it is completed at 9,948 on hourly chart.
On Daily chart, corrective up move "wave B" might be completed at 9,948. Tomorrow's volume data will confirm that current wave count needs alteration or not.
Alteration :-
Looking to the fact that wave b is slow and targeting 9,964 & 9,998,
one must be open minded to accept alteration in current wave count, because
it is quite possible that remaining two leg of wave a of wave B may test 9,965 before initiation of wave b of B. 【 This is Alternate wave count hence not marked on chart】
On downside, 9,840 will act as support.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher High - Higher Low without volume which confirms wave X.
in RED Zone for longer period. This is signal that downward impuls may intiate anytime.
Way ahead:-
As can be seen on Daily chart completion of wave 5 has formed similar pattern to Classic "HEAD and Shoulder pattern". It's Necline is at 9,998.
So, at the most "Wave b" may go upto 9,965 (61.8% FIBO) And, if bulls make some extra efforts, this neckline level +15 =10,013 will provide dead man resistance, from where fast downward impulsive "wave c" is to start.
Today's volume data confirms wave b, and VIX and Adv-Dec data indicates wave c is to start soon. However, looking to fact that wave b FIBO TARGET LEVEL is 9,965 and "Wave b" is time consuming slow wave, one must be ready to alter the current wave count -if inner waves are formed.
In either case, wave b is habitual to give fictitious buy signal, Therefore, it is time to remain cautious in next two session. Any long positions, must either be appropriatly hedged or with strict stop losses.
On the other hand, without confirmation of initiation of wave c, any short positikns will carry extra risk of alteration in wave count.
So, at the most "Wave b" may go upto 9,965 (61.8% FIBO) And, if bulls make some extra efforts, this neckline level +15 =10,013 will provide dead man resistance, from where fast downward impulsive "wave c" is to start.
Today's volume data confirms wave b, and VIX and Adv-Dec data indicates wave c is to start soon. However, looking to fact that wave b FIBO TARGET LEVEL is 9,965 and "Wave b" is time consuming slow wave, one must be ready to alter the current wave count -if inner waves are formed.
In either case, wave b is habitual to give fictitious buy signal, Therefore, it is time to remain cautious in next two session. Any long positions, must either be appropriatly hedged or with strict stop losses.
On the other hand, without confirmation of initiation of wave c, any short positikns will carry extra risk of alteration in wave count.
All the Best.
_______
Nifty ~ 16 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 16-Aug-2017 at 22:55 Hours IST.
New upmove progressed towards it's target of 9,915. Today's Volume data gave mixed signal and therefore, this may be wave X or wave one on hourly chart.
On Daily chart, this is corrective b wave, which can theoritically extend upto 10,137. This upwave is facing 3 resistance level 9,915, 9,964 & 9,998.
On downside, now 9,840 is support level.
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher High - Higher Low with mixed volume data.
Daily Turnover was higher, but Quantity of shares was lower. This indicates attempt to maintain INDEX.
Way ahead:-
As can be seen on Daily chart completion of wave 5 has formed similar pattern to Classic "HEAD and Shoulder pattern". It's Necline is placed at 9,998.
So, at the most "Wave b" may go upto 9,965 (61.8% FIBO) And, if bulls make some extra efforts, this neckline level +15 =10,013 will provide dead man resistance, from where fast downward impulsive "wave c" is to start. "Wave b" is time consuming slow wave, and habitual to give fictitious buy signal. Therefore, it is time to remain cautious in next two session. Any long positions, must either be appropriatly hedged or with strict stop losses.
On the other hand, "wave b" is still away from its resistance level, therefore, shorting the market will require lot of patience, conviction and holding capacity.
So, at the most "Wave b" may go upto 9,965 (61.8% FIBO) And, if bulls make some extra efforts, this neckline level +15 =10,013 will provide dead man resistance, from where fast downward impulsive "wave c" is to start. "Wave b" is time consuming slow wave, and habitual to give fictitious buy signal. Therefore, it is time to remain cautious in next two session. Any long positions, must either be appropriatly hedged or with strict stop losses.
On the other hand, "wave b" is still away from its resistance level, therefore, shorting the market will require lot of patience, conviction and holding capacity.
All the Best.
___
Nifty ~ 14 August 2017 (Closing) :-
Blog Updated on 14-Aug-2017 at 18:45 Hours IST.
"Wave c" completed on hourly chart. New upmove has initiated. Daily chart suggests this is x wave.
Alternativly, if this move will cross 9,948 then this will be wave one of new 8 wave cycle on hourly chart
On Daily chart wave a did not extended to 9,643. and terminated at 9685. Today, wave b has been initiated which is likely to test 9,715 and possibly 9,948
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher Low - Lower Low without volume. This confirms volumeless corrective "wave b"
Volatility Index remained in RED and finally closed in RED below 15 mark. This indicates "wave b" has been initiated.
Advance Decline Ratio was well above one, (4:1). This indicates sign of relief.
Alternativly, if this move will cross 9,948 then this will be wave one of new 8 wave cycle on hourly chart
On Daily chart wave a did not extended to 9,643. and terminated at 9685. Today, wave b has been initiated which is likely to test 9,715 and possibly 9,948
On Price Volume chart, Nifty made Higher Low - Lower Low without volume. This confirms volumeless corrective "wave b"
All the Best.
Disclaimer:-
(1) Nifty data is as received from googlefinanace.
(2) Data is processed to generate hourly EWT wave for last 4 day & upto last upadated data for current day.
(3)All due care is taken while processing the data. However some minor technical glitch may not be ruled out.
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